E-series production number estimate

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E-series production number estimate

Post by Webmaster » Tue Mar 24, 2009 10:24 pm

The following is an educated guess, based on E-series serial numbers (both Nikon and Fujifilm) collected so far. With a few exceptions, all the serial numbers are of the xx000xx type, meaning that a specific serial number range (e.g. 63xxxxx) represents no more than 100 units.

Here are the numbers collected:

NIKON models:

E2: 5100025 - 5400063
Range: 51, 52, 53, 54 = total 400 units
E2S: 5100035 - 5400040
Range: 51, 52, 54 = total 300 units
---
E2N: 6300024 - 7410073
Range: 63, 64, 71, 72, 73, 74 = 600 units
E2Ns: 7100007 - 7200071
Range: 71, 72 = 200 units
---
E3: 8200045 - 9100092
Range: 82, 83, 84, 91 = 400 units?
E3S: 8200046 - 9200015
Range: 82, 83, 91, 92 = 400 units

Total: 2300 Nikon E-series cameras

FUJIX models:

DS-505 (same as E2): 5200022 - 6100034
Range: 52, 61 = 200 units
DS-505A (same as E2S): 6300030 - 7410017
Range: 63, 64, 71, 72, 73, 74 = 600 units
----
DS-515 (same as E2N) 5200014 - 5400016
Range: 52, 54 = 200 units
DS-515A (same as E2Ns) 7410003 - 7410006
Range: 72 = 100 units
-----
DS-560 (E3): 8400025 - 9200037
Range: 84, 92 = 200 units
DS-565(E3S): 8300032 - 9200005
Range: 83, 92 = 200 units

Total: 1500 Fujifilm E-series cameras

Nikon + Fujifilm = 3800 E-series cameras

Again - this is only a guestimate, based on known serial numbers. Considering that Kodak produced some 5000 DCS 400-series cameras (less than previously believed), I feel 3800 is a plausible estimate. Looking at actual serial numbers (and the number of units being offered on eBay, which may or may not mean anything), the total production number may even be less than 3800.

Thoughts, anyone?

Edit: spreefurt has provided a better analysis, showing that my production estimate is probably too high. See below for more info.

Jarle

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Re: E-series production number estimate

Post by NIKON KIU » Wed Mar 25, 2009 2:17 pm

Well Jarle,
Nikon Engineer, Kenji Toyoda told us a while back the total number of Nikon units produced were less than 2000
You posted the reply back when. I am not motivated enough to find the thread.
I think since all these cameras came from the same production line, Toyoda-san means the whole production is under 2000 samples, including the fuji cameras.

Kiu
Lets talk Nikon

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Re: E-series production number estimate

Post by Webmaster » Wed Mar 25, 2009 4:13 pm

NIKON KIU wrote:Nikon Engineer, Kenji Toyoda told us a while back the total number of Nikon units produced were less than 2000
Actually, his reply was "I don't know for sure. Maybe 2000 to 3000 units."

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=63&p=422

Looking at the serial numbers, approx. 3000 cameras (both Nikon and Fujifilm) sounds like a realistic number.

Despite the relatively low production volume, the E-series cameras are surprisingly easy to find on eBay (the same could be said about some of the Kodak DCS models). On the other hand, it's not a small camera that is easily lost or forgotten. Being practically useless (by today's standards) I guess it's only natural most owners want to get rid of them.

Jarle

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Re: E-series production number estimate

Post by spreefurt » Wed Mar 25, 2009 7:07 pm

I already made the attempt of a number system in the serial number thread. This attempt is a little bit outdated, because after this many numbers were added. Therefore I will it update here for an alternative estimation (the E2N 71000021 was not included, it is one of mine):

51:
5100025 E2
5100035 E2S
5100055 E2

52:
5200007 E2S
5200011 E2S
5200014 DS-515
5200015 DS-515
5200022 DS-505
5200028 E2S
5200028 DS-515
5200044 DS-505
5200057 DS-505
5200067 E2
5200072 E2
5200075 E2
5200107 E2

53:
5300026 E2
5300053 E2

54:
5400001 E2S
5400006 E2
5400013 DS-515
5400016 DS-515
5400040 E2S
5400062 E2
5400063 E2

61:
6100034 DS-505

62:
none

63:
6300024 E2N
6300030 DS-505A
6300031 DS-505A

64:
6400009 E2N
6400006 DS-505A
6400009 DS-505A
6400034 E2N
6400045 E2N

71:
7100006 E2N
7100007 E2Ns
7100015 DS-505A
7100021 E2N
7100030 E2N
7100064 E2N
7100067 E2N
7100076 E2N
7100103 E2N

72:
7200003 DS-505A
7200004 DS-505A
72000024 DS-505A (typing error? -> 7200024)
7200031 E2N
7200035 E2N
7200071 E2Ns
7200080 E2N

73:
7300049 DS-505A
7300102 E2N

74:
7400023 E2N
7400029 E2N

74.1:
7410003 DS-515A
7410005 DS-515A
7410006 DS-515A
7410010 E2N
7410058 E2N
7410073 E2N

81:
none

82:
8200045 E3
8200046 E3
8200067 E3

83:
8300008 E3
8300015 E3S
8300022 E3
8300031 DS-565
8300032 DS-565
8300035 E3S
8300036 E3S
8300053 E3S
8300058 E3
8300090 E3
8300100 E3

83.1:
8310090 E3

84:
8400025 DS-560
8400043 E3

91:
9100012 E3S
9100024 E3S
9100024 DS-565
9100032 E3S
9100065 E3
9100092 E3

92:
9200003 DS-565
9200005 DS-565
9200006 E3S
9200015 E3S
9200037 DS-560

My assumptions from the first attempt are confirmed: The first digit is the last digit of the year (e. g. 5 -> 1995), the second digit will be the quarter of the year (no number higher than 4). With the last 3 digits the cameras are counted within the quarter.

This means, that there is no limit within the assumed "batches". The real batch size will be much smaller. We have a few numbers higher than 100 in the last digits. No problem, sometimes there were more than 100 cameras within a quarter.

I don't think, that each model was counted separately. This means, an assumption of 100 cameras of each known "batch" (-> quarter) will be wrong. We still have 2 numbers, which were found on different cameras. At least one of these cases was confirmed. I cannot explain this.

i will try to summarize the production according to time:

1995, Jan - Mar (51): Start of production (this means, that the official release year of 1994 could be wrong, until now there is no camera of 1994). At least 55 cameras were made.

1995, Apr - Jun (52): At least 107 cameras were made.

1995, Jul - Sep (53): At least 53 cameras were made.

1995, Oct - Dec (54): At least 63 cameras were made.

1996, Jan - Mar (61): At least 34 cameras were made. End of production of the 1st generation.

1996, Apr - Jun (62): Gap between 1st and 2nd generation, no production.

1996, Jul - Sep (63): Start of production of the 2nd generation, at least 31 cameras were made.

1996, Oct - Dec (64): At least 45 cameras were made.

1997, Jan - Mar (71): At least 103 cameras were made.

1997, Apr - Jun (72): At least 80 cameras were made.

1997, Jul - Sep (73): At least 102 were made (Although we have only 2 of them!) .

1997, Oct - Dec (74): First part: at least 29 cameras. Then there was a change in manufacturing (whatever this could have been), Afterwards there were again at least 73 cameras (numbers beginning with 741). End of production of the 2nd generation.

1998, Jan - Mar (81): Gap between 2nd and 3rd generation, no production.

1998, Apr - Jun (82): Start of production of the 3rd generation, at least 67 cameras were made.

1998, Jul - Sep (83): At least 100 cameras of the first part, afterwards at least 90 cameras of the second part (numbers beginning with 831).

1998, Oct - Dec (84): At least 43 cameras were made.

1999, Jan - Mar (91): At least 92 cameras were made.

1999, Apr - Jun (92): Still after the announcement of the D1 at least 37 cameras were made. End of production.

If we add these numbers, we will not get the real total number. But it is a hint for the distribution of the total number on the generations:

1st generation (E2, E2S, DS-505, DS-515): at least 312 cameras
2nd generation(E2N, E2NS, DS-505A, DS-515A): at least 463 cameras
3rd generation(E3, E3S, DS-560, DS-565): at least 429 cameras
total: at least 1204 cameras

There a two possibilities to estimate the distribution on the generations: From the known numbers in the list and from the estimated number, if we assume, that no number was omitted.

From known numbers:
1st generation: 26 cameras, 30%
2nd generation: 34 cameras, 39%
3rd generation: 28 cameras, 32%

From assumed numbers, which were at least produced in each quarter:
1st generation: 26%
2nd generation: 38%
3rd generation: 36%

The real numbers will be anywhere between this. I am sure, that the 2nd generation is the most numerous (but is not new, we knew it already :lol: ). The 1st generation seems to be the rarest.

If we consider, that the numbers found "at least" for each quarter are lower than the real, a total number of 2000 seems to be likely. This means, that it is unlikely, that the Nikons and Fujis were counted in parallel rows.

Of course we need more serial numbers for better statistics. This would allow to estimate the numbers of each model (which would be the most interesting). And perhaps the problem with the doubled numbers can be clarified.

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Re: E-series production number estimate

Post by Webmaster » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:26 pm

spreefurt wrote:I already made the attempt of a number system in the serial number thread. This attempt is a little bit outdated, because after this many numbers were added. Therefore I will it update here for an alternative estimation (the E2N 71000021 was not included, it is one of mine):
That's a great analysis (once again) - and I must admit that your logic and reasoning is better than mine! Well done.

Regarding your E2N (71000021) - I assume you have a zero too many. It should be 7100021?

Jarle

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Re: E-series production number estimate

Post by spreefurt » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:36 pm

Webmaster wrote: Regarding your E2N (71000021) - I assume you have a zero too many. It should be 7100021?
Yes, of course. It was a typing error. Perhaps like the mentioned DS-505A 72000024 in the serial number thread? I ignored this and took it as 7200024.

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Re: E-series production number estimate

Post by Webmaster » Wed Mar 25, 2009 8:41 pm

spreefurt wrote:Yes, of course. It was a typing error. Perhaps like the mentioned DS-505A 72000024 in the serial number thread?
Yes, I'm pretty sure it's a typo. I'll add your camera to the list.

Thanks,
Jarle

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